Maxeon Solar Technologies, Outlook + Analysis
Their strategy team deserves a raise
On paper, Maxeon Solar Technologies is technically a fairly new company even though its technology and track record extend further than any solar company in the world. After being spun off from SunPower in 2020, their focus has been to solidify their supply chain and manufacturing while expanding into global markets under the brand names “SunPower From Maxeon Solar Technologies” and “Maxeon”.
Why did they spin off? Because it makes sense. “Divide and conquer,” as they say.
But based on recent developments, it seems that Maxeon may be running laps around SunPower in regard to their mutual “conquers”. Up until 2023, Maxeon and SunPower were tied up into an exclusivity agreement for their U.S. DG Sales Channel for their IBC solar panels. This meant that Maxeon wasn’t contractually allowed to sell their products into the United States without SunPower as the middleman.
But now it’s open season and Maxeon is making moves. Possibly even cutting SunPower out of the picture.
But let’s back up for a second.
In January 2023, Maxeon and SunPower struck a deal to extend their exclusivity agreement for their Maxeon Generation 6 line only. Here’s a noteworthy paragraph.
“Under the new supply agreement, Maxeon expects to sell additional volumes of its Maxeon 6 panels (marketed in the U.S. and Canada under the SunPower brand as M-Series) to SunPower on an exclusive basis. SunPower will also have the right to negotiate the supply of future IBC next-generation technology developed by Maxeon, which would enable SunPower to continue to provide homeowners with the most efficient solar technology available to date.”
In May of 2023, Maxeon raised $200M to ramp up their Maxeon Generation 7 line with a rumored efficiency of 24%. Here’s a noteworthy paragraph.
“Maxeon said Fab5 site production will ramp up in the second half of 2024. The company said new volume produced at Fab5 will be sold to the distributed generation (DG) markets, including expanding supply volume into a new U.S. residential channel market. Additional new Fab5 expansion capacity will allow more shipments to its European market and rebalance the mix of Maxeon and Performance line sales.”
And in June, things started to heat up. And this is where it gets interesting.
Achieved 24.7% World Record Efficiency with Maxeon 7 Solar Panel
Translated to cell efficiency, this must be upwards of 27% cell efficiency which is very close to their theoretical maximum. Next stop — tandem.
23% Efficient Maxeon 6 Solar Panels Shipping into Europe
Odd that they are shipping into Europe when SunPower is supposed to be facing supply shortages on the M-Series in the U.S. To me, it sounds like a pricing dispute and the U-Series introduction supports this thesis.
24% Efficient Maxeon 3 Solar Panels Available for Q4 Delivery
This makes no sense. It seems like a misdirection because why would they build an entirely new production line for a 0.7% efficiency increase on Maxeon 7 if Maxeon 3 — or 6 — can achieve 24%? It just makes no sense.
SunPower & Maxeon’s Investor presentation are also quite interesting. Check them out sometime if this type of stuff interests you!
some other recent news …
Midway through June, Maxeon announced a partnership with Samsung SmartThings further solidifying their vision for their SunPower One ecosystem while also entering the TOPCon segment in their P-Series line.
YouTube video of CEO Bill Mulligan at Intersolar 2023.
The issue with Maxeon is their cost of production is higher and thus their panels can be almost double the price than competitors. Are they still worth it? They might be … you could sure make the argument that they are worth it. But at the same time, consumers aren’t thinking that far into the future that Maxeon is.
But one things for sure — all, if not most, roads lead to IBC and Maxeon is strategically set up to capture a lot of market share for people who’ll get burned from going with the cheapest bids for solar.
Who knows, though? Thanks for reading!
“SunPower Statement Regarding Ongoing Supply Agreement Negotiation” link
“Maxeon Solar Technologies Selects Albuquerque, New Mexico as Site for New 3-Gigawatt Solar Cell and Panel Manufacturing Facility” link
“Maxeon Solar Technologies and Complete Solaria Sign Definitive Agreement for Purchase of Sales Channel Assets and Shingled Solar Panel IP by Maxeon” link